Socio-demographics – #4 of the 5 forces that are changing us
A deep dive on the forces that have upended us
I don’t know about you, but if I had an open invitation to live in any country I wanted, there would be many countries I’d refuse. Between culture, language, weather, location, and the reason for moving, I would be quick to eschew many countries. I hadn’t thought about this before, but does that mean I’m being an -ist of sorts? Surely, I am being discriminatory. Even when we seek to be just and fair in our outlook and in the decisions we make, it’s impossible to be totally neutral or unbiased about everything. Sometimes we might say one thing, but believe another. As we look at one another’s positions, we need to seek to understand rather than jump to conclusions.
In my article, “How have we ended up with all this divisiveness and lack of proper debate?” I laid out five forces that have changed us and on which I am expanding in five longer form articles. I’ve published the first two:
3. The spread of Deconstructionism
4. Socio-demographics (today’s post read on below)
5. The arrival of the Internet (to come next week)
I contend that these have been the driving forces that have led us to this place of great division, where we are so deaf to one another and where dialogue is either ascetically sanitized or corrosively combative. Several of your comments have enriched my thinking and I’m very grateful for your inputs. Keep them coming! I will now expand on the fourth force.
(4) Socio-demographics
The changing landscape of socio-demographics has contributed to this tricky and somewhat volatile environment. There are three separate points to address here that pertain to socio-demographics: the aging of populations (especially in the West), economics and immigration.
The age pyramid becomes an age column
Within the context of a ballooning world population, in most of the West (but also notably in China, Russia and Japan), we have seen the aging of populations. At best, we’ve seen a tapering of the age pyramid. At worse, an inversion, especially if you were to clump all the retirees together. See the case of Italy below. But the bottom line is that we’ll have an unprecedented number of retirees with burgeoning health challenges having to be supported by a reduced number of productive working-age people.
An aging population
According to the UN 2019 report, the share of people around the world aged 65+ has gone from 6% in 1990 to 9% in 2019. And it is predicted that the number of people 65+ will more than double from 2019 to 2050. Looking at figure 2 for the US, the graph shows both a general swelling and a more even distribution. If the people aged 65+ were put together, the pyramid shape (more like the top of the Chrysler Building if you ask me) would turn into a top-heavy T-shape.
The pressure to provide for the retirees is going fall squarely on the shoulders of the younger generations and is bound to get sharply worse. For the elderly, as they enter into the twilight of their lives, there is little wiggle room with only fixed income to manage their existence. Today, they are facing the added risk of inflation that will materially reduce their purchasing power. For the younger generations, with ever lowering fertility rates (outside of Africa), concerns about the future of the planet, and an economic slowdown, there will be further incentive to have few -- if any -- kids, knowing that on top they must deal with their aging parents.
Low fertility rates spell further trouble
In terms of fertility rates, we’ve already seen a drop worldwide, but the countries in purple below are at 2.0 or lower. In other words, they’re running at below replacement rates. In the US and UK, the fertility rate is currently 1.7. In Canada it’s 1.5, France is at 1.9, while Italy and Spain are at 1.3. China and Russia are at 1.7 and 1.6 respectively, while Japan sits at 1.4. Clearly, this isn’t just a ‘Western’ problem.
Toward a more individualistic society
With households only having 1 or 2 children, it’s normal that the parents will tend to over-focus on their singular offspring. Compare with 100 years ago when parents could have 10 or more children. In any event, given the limited number of offspring, parents have inevitably become more protective and the kids have become more cocooned. This has led to a change in our societal values and contributed to the rise of hyper individualism, often egocentric, if not narcissistic. As I will argue in a later chapter, we’ve seen a consequential decrease in our sense of community.
Economics -- Who’s going to pay?
As I evoked above, the second issue is economic. Who’s going to pay to keep our societies’ economies afloat? In a context of swollen national debt, we are likely entering a period of inexorably slower growth, where the concept of progress, inherent in the model of capitalism, is under scrutiny. Hyper consumption has been tapering off, faced with a variety of factors including concerns about climate change and protecting our Earth. As urgent and important as fighting climate change may be, the disparity of the have and have nots means that not everyone has the same prism. The incentives, timelines, and costs to be borne are not aligned with a global solution. There is plenty of speculation that these disparities (or inequities) could lead to social unrest. As we look forward at less economic growth, we are running headstrong into existential issues around our sense of comfort and, ultimately, of survival. At the very least, we are concerned about the survival of our modern civilization.
We now have a top-heavy age distribution, heavily debt-ridden economies that have been impacted by the pandemic (and not to forget the war in Ukraine). The potential to compensate with above-average economic activity and superior gains in productivity via technological advancements seems unlikely. In such an environment, it is likely that an instinct for survival will drive more anxiety and feed the fears. These are not good conditions for having serenely meaningful conversations. But there is another looming issue that will likely provoke – if it hasn’t already – much more ardent arguments about ourselves and what we stand for: immigration.
Immigration -- The burgeoning movement of populations
Thirdly and last, we will all have to deal with immigration. With bulbous populations in under-developed countries (most notably in Africa), affected in addition by the changing climate (water supply, water levels, temperatures…), we will inevitably see huge migratory movements toward countries that are better off and where the climate changes are less severe. With such pressure will naturally come questions of identity and existential notions at the national level: who do we want to be? Countries will be obliged to make choices since it is untenable to open the floodgates without conditions. This is a vital and tricky question that flies in the face of the post-modern globalization trend. Openness, fluidity, and transparency will not be effective in the face of (ultimately) millions of incoming desperate immigrants.
In each of these instances around the evolving socio-demographics, we have tinder wood that is set to light at a spark. On the one hand, the changing age pyramids will require a review of the economic model. Who will produce the wealth? Who will provide the purchasing power to drive the economy? Then who will fill the low-skilled jobs with minimal pay? Which immigrants will be attracted to your country? Which immigrants will your country wish to accept?
These are loaded – if not divisive – questions that all the developed countries are going to need to explore and answer. And within the debate lie many existential questions and/or threats to a certain way of life.
Even when we seek to be just and fair in our outlook and in the decisions we make, it’s impossible to be totally neutral or unbiased about everything. Sometimes we might say one thing but believe another. As we look at one another’s positions, we need to seek to understand rather than jump to conclusions.
Morning thought: the more global is the world, the more individualistic is the mindset, the less rooted, the more into a global bubble.
Life is not doubt about changes. It seems to all go back to oneself and finding their true self. So many of our elders, professionals write of this...once discovered and accepted, then maybe the listening of one another begins with kindness, and love, then the trusting begins and solutions can be found. In the end peace for all hearts which are world so needs.